Ngo-2024, phantsi kweempembelelo ezimbini zepateni yoqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nokuziqhelanisa nomgaqo-nkqubo wasekhaya, ishishini le-aluminiyam laseTshayina libonise imeko yokusebenza entsonkothileyo neguqukayo. Lilonke, ubungakanani bemarike buyaqhubeka ukwanda, kunye nokuveliswa kwe-aluminium kunye nokusetyenziswa kuye kwagcina ukukhula, kodwa izinga lokukhula liye laguquguquka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, oluqhutywe yimfuno eqinile yezithuthi zamandla amatsha, i-photovoltaic, amandla ombane kunye nezinye iindawo, uluhlu lwesicelo se-aluminium luqhubeka lukhula, lufaka umfutho omtsha kuphuhliso loshishino; Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuhla kwemarike yendawo yokuhlala kuye kwabeka uxinzelelo kwimfuno ye-aluminium kwicandelo lokwakha. Ukuziqhelanisa neshishini le-aluminiyam kutshintsho lweemarike, izicwangciso zokusabela ekuguquguqukeni okungaqhelekanga kwamaxabiso ezinto ezikrwada, kunye namanyathelo okufaka iimfuno eziqinileyo ngaphakathi kuphuhliso lwekhabhoni eluhlaza kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi zisajongwa kwaye zomelezwa ngokuthe ngcembe. Ukuvela komgangatho omtsha wemveliso yoshishino akukafiki kwiimfuno zophuhliso lweshishini, kwaye imboni ye-aluminium ijongene nemingeni emininzi.
1.uhlalutyo lwemarike ye-aluminiyam yeshishini
Alumina
NgoJuni ka-2024, isiphumo sasiyi-7.193 yezigidi zeetoni, ukwanda kwe-1.4% unyaka nonyaka, kwaye ukunyuka kwenyanga nenyanga kwakulinganiselwe. Kwiindawo ezilandelayo zokuqalisa kwakhona amandla okuvelisa akhululwe, imveliso entsha kwi-Inner Mongolia inokukhululwa ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye amandla okusebenza agcine ukunyuka okunyukayo.
Ngo-2024, ixabiso le-alumina liguquguquka ngokukhawuleza, libonisa iimpawu ezicacileyo zezigaba. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ixabiso lilonke libonise ukunyuka okunyukayo, okuthe ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi, ixabiso lendawo ye-alumina yenyuka ukusuka malunga ne-3,000 yuan / toni ekuqaleni konyaka ukuya ngaphezu kwe-4,000 yuan / toni, ukunyuka okungaphezulu kwe-30%. Esona sizathu siphambili sokunyuka kwexabiso kweli nqanaba kukubonelelwa okuqinileyo kwe-bauxite yasekhaya, okukhokelela kwiindleko eziphezulu zokuvelisa i-alumina.
Ukunyuka okubukhali kwamaxabiso e-alumina kubangele uxinzelelo olukhulu kwiindleko zamashishini e-electrolytic aluminiyam esezantsi. Ukuvelisa i-1 toni ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kufuneka idle i-1.925 yeetoni zokubala kwe-alumina, ixabiso le-alumina linyuka nge-1000 yuan / ton, iindleko zokuvelisa i-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic ziya kunyuka malunga ne-1925 yuan / ton. Ukusabela kuxinzelelo lweendleko, amanye amashishini e-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic aqala ukunciphisa imveliso okanye ukucotha ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwesicwangciso sokuvelisa, njengephondo laseHenan, iGuangxi, iGuizhou, iLiaoning, iChongqing kunye nezinye iindawo ezinexabiso eliphezulu lamanye amashishini e-China abhengeze ukutshintshwa ngokutsha, ukumisa itanki okanye ukucothisa ukuqalisa kwakhona kwemveliso.
Electrolytic aluminiyam
Ngo-2022, umthamo wemveliso wawumalunga ne-43 yezigidi zeetoni, eziye zasondela kumgca obomvu wesilingi. Ukususela ngoDisemba ka-2024, amandla okusebenza kweshishini le-aluminium ye-electrolytic yaseChina yayiyi-43,584,000 yeetoni, ukwanda kwe-1.506 yezigidi zeetoni, okanye i-3.58%, xa kuthelekiswa ne-42,078,000 yeetoni ekupheleni kuka-2023. Okwangoku, umthamo wemveliso we-electrolytic wasekhaya we-aluminium ye-45. Ukuphunyezwa kwalo mgaqo-nkqubo kubaluleke kakhulu kuphuhliso lwexesha elide loshishino lwe-aluminium electrolytic. Inceda ukulawula ukugqithisa kwishishini, ukuphepha ukhuphiswano olubi, nokukhuthaza uphuhliso lweshishini kumgangatho ophezulu, uhlaza kunye nolwalathiso oluzinzileyo. Ngokususa umva umthamo wemveliso kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla, amashishini ayakhuthazwa ukuba andise ukuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe kunye notyalo-mali kugcino lwamandla kunye nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa, kunye nokuphucula ukukhuphisana ngokubanzi koshishino.
Ukulungiswa kweAluminiyam
Ngokuphuculwa kweemfuno ezikhaphukhaphu kumashishini ahlukeneyo, imfuno yeemveliso ezicutshungulwayo ze-aluminium iyaqhubeka nokukhula, kwaye iimveliso ziphuhla kwicala lokhuseleko oluphezulu, olukrelekrele kunye nokusingqongileyo. Kwintsimi yokwakha, nangona ukuhla ngokubanzi kwimarike yendawo yokuhlala, iingcango ze-aluminium kunye neWindows, iindonga zamakhethini kunye nezinye iimveliso zisenemfuno ezinzileyo kwizakhiwo ezitsha zorhwebo, izakhiwo zokuhlala eziphezulu kunye neeprojekthi zokulungiswa kwezakhiwo zakudala. Ngokwezibalo, inani le-aluminium elisetyenziswe kwishishini lokwakha libalelwa malunga ne-28% yokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium iyonke. Kwintsimi yezothutho, ngokukodwa uphuhliso olukhawulezayo lwezithuthi zamandla amatsha, imfuno yezinto zokulungisa i-aluminium ibonise ukukhula okuqinileyo. Ngokukhawuleza kwenkqubo yemoto ekhaphukhaphu, ialluminiyam isetyenziswa ngakumbi nangakumbi kwisakhiwo somzimba, ihabhu yevili, itreyi yebhetri kunye nezinye izinto. Ukuthatha isithuthi samandla esitsha njengomzekelo, isixa se-aluminium esetyenziswayo emzimbeni wayo sidlula i-400 kg / imoto, eyonyuswe kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nezithuthi zendabuko. Ukongeza, imfuno ye-aluminium conductors, i-radiator ye-aluminium kunye nezinye iimveliso kwishishini lamandla liye lanyuka ngokuqhubekayo ngokwakhiwa kunye nokuphuculwa kwegridi yamandla.
I-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, imveliso iqhubekile nokunyuka, i-2024 ngunyaka obalulekileyo we-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo yaseTshayina ukwenza impumelelo enkulu, kwaye imveliso ye-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo yonyaka iye yatyhutyha i-10 yezigidi zeetoni, yafikelela malunga ne-10.55 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye umlinganiselo we-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo ukuya kwi-aluminiyam yokuqala sele iphantse ibe yi-1: 4. Nangona kunjalo, ukusetyenzwa kwakhona kwenkunkuma ye-aluminiyam, umthombo wophuhliso lwe-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo, ayinathemba.
Uphuhliso loshishino lwe-aluminium olusetyenzisiweyo luxhomekeke kakhulu ekunikezelweni kwenkunkuma ye-aluminium ekrwada, kunye nokunikezelwa kwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo ze-aluminiyam e-China ijongene nemeko enzima. Inkqubo yokubuyisela inkunkuma ye-aluminiyam yasekhaya ayifezekanga, nangona izinga lokubuyisela inkunkuma ye-aluminiyam yaseChina kwezinye iindawo kwinqanaba eliphambili lehlabathi, njengeetoti ze-aluminiyam yokuphinda isetyenziswe inkunkuma inokufikelela kwi-100%, i-aluminiyam yokwakha inkunkuma yokubuyisela inkunkuma inokufikelela kwi-90%, intsimi yothutho lwemoto yi-87%, kodwa izinga lokubuyisela i-recycling lifuna ukulungiswa ngokusisiseko kwaye i-recycling irecycling non-standard, inani elikhulu inkunkuma aluminiyam imithombo azikhange zisetyenziswe ngokufanelekileyo.
Uhlenga-hlengiso lomgaqo-nkqubo wokungenisa elizweni lube nempembelelo ebalulekileyo kubonelelo lwemathiriyeli ekrwada ye-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, i-China iphumeze amanyathelo okulawula angqongqo ekungenisweni kwe-aluminiyam ye-scrap ukuqinisa ukhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kunye nolawulo lwemithombo. Oku kubangele ukuguquguquka okukhulu kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwe-recycled cast aluminiyam ialloy ekrwada, ngo-Okthobha ka-2024, ukungeniswa kwe-aluminiyam yesilaphu yaseTshayina yeetoni ezingama-133,000, ukwanda kwe-0.81%, ukuhla nge-13.59% ngonyaka, ukuhla kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kubonisa ukungazinzi konikezelo.
I-2.Aluminiyam imboniselo ye-market chain market
I-aluminiyam oxide
Ngo-2025, kuya kubakho umthamo omtsha wemveliso, kunye nokwanda kwe-13%, kunye nokwenzeka ukuba imigodi evela kumazwe angaphandle ingathatha indawo ngokupheleleyo yemigodi yasekhaya yaseChina, kwaye ukulungiswa komgaqo-nkqubo wesaphulelo serhafu ye-aluminium yokuthumela ngaphandle kuya kucinezela ukwanda kwemfuno, kwaye ixabiso liya kuhla kunye namathuba aphezulu. Ukwanda konikezelo: Umthamo omtsha wemveliso ye-alumina yaseTshayina ngo-2025 NgoMeyi ufikelele kwi-13.2 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye umthamo wemveliso phesheya kulindeleke ukuba unyuke ngeetoni zezigidi ezi-5.1 ngo-2025. Ukwehla kwexabiso: ukunikezelwa kwe-bauxite kunye ne-alumina kwanda, ukuphikisana phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno yancipha kakhulu, kwaye ixabiso liye lawa ngokuthe ngcembe.
Electrolytic aluminiyam
Umthamo wemveliso wecala lokubonelela ufikelele kwisilingi, amathuba okunyusa imveliso aphantsi kakhulu, imveliso yaphesheya ichaphazeleka ngezinto ezahlukeneyo, kwaye imveliso ayinakuqhutywa ngokufanelekileyo. Kwicala leemfuno, ukongeza ekunciphiseni konyaka-ngonyaka kwimfuno ye-real estate, enye imfuno yokugcina ibonise ukusebenza okuqaqambileyo, ngokukodwa kwintsimi yemfuno entsha yamandla okukhula okunokwenzeka, kunye nokunikezelwa kwehlabathi kunye nemfuno zigcine ibhalansi eqinile; Umthamo wemveliso yasekhaya usondele kumgca obomvu, iyonke yeetoni ezingama-450,000 zomthamo omtsha wemveliso yasekhaya inokutyalwa ngo-2025, kwaye phesheya kolwandle kulindeleke ukuba yongeze iitoni ezingama-820,000 zomthamo omtsha wemveliso phantsi komgangatho webenchmark, ukwanda kwe-2.3% xa kuthelekiswa no-2024. Imfuno entsha elawulwa yi-photovoltaic kunye neenqwelo zamandla amatsha kulindeleke ukuba ibe ngaphantsi kwe-260,000 yeetoni ze-electrolytic yasekhaya yonikezelo lwe-aluminium ngo-2025. Ukunyuka kwexabiso: Amaxabiso e-aluminium e-Shanghai kulindeleke ukuba atshintshe phakathi kwe-19000-20500 yuan / toni kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kwaye uzinzo lulindeleke kwisiqingatha sonyaka, kwaye ixabiso lesibini lilindeleke kwisiqingatha sonyaka. 20,000-21,000 yuan/toni.
Ukulungiswa kweAluminiyam
Ngophuhliso olukhawulezayo lwezithuthi zamandla amatsha, imboni ye-photovoltaic kunye nokuthandwa kwethekhnoloji ye-5G, imfuno yeemveliso ezicwangcisiweyo ze-aluminium iya kuqhubeka nokunyuka kwaye kulindeleke ukuba igcine ukukhula okuzinzile. Ukwandiswa kobungakanani bemakethi: Ubungakanani bemarike kulindeleke ukuba bufikelele kwi-1 yetriliyoni ye-yuan, kwaye imfuno yezithuthi zamandla amatsha, i-photovoltaic, i-3C kunye nekhaya elihlakaniphile lomelele. Ukuphuculwa kwemveliso: Imveliso ihambela ekusebenzeni okuphezulu, ukukhanya kunye ne-multi-functional, kunye nophando kunye nophuhliso lwezixhobo eziphezulu kunye nomsebenzi okhethekileyo we-aluminium alloy. Inkqubela phambili yezobuchwephesha: ikrelekrele, i-automation kwi-mainstream, izixhobo zotyalo-mali lweshishini, imveliso yolawulo, ukuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kunye nomgangatho, intsebenziswano yophando lweshishini-yunivesithi ukukhuthaza inkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe.
I-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo
Ukungena kwixesha lokukhula, izithuthi ezilahliweyo / ezidityanisiweyo zingena kwixesha lobungakanani, ezinokuzalisa into engonelanga i-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo yasekhaya, kwaye imarike inamathemba abanzi, kodwa okwangoku ijongene neengxaki ezinje ngobuninzi obungonelanga be-scrap ethunyelwa ngaphandle, intengiso eyomeleleyo yokulinda kunye nokubona imvakalelo, kunye ne-inventory eyaneleyo. Ukukhula kwemveliso: Ngokutsho kwesebe le-Recycled Metal ye-China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association, iya kufikelela kwi-11.35 yezigidi zeetoni kwi-2025. Ukwandiswa kwentsimi yesicelo: Kwimimandla yezithuthi zamandla amatsha, ukwakhiwa, i-electronics kunye nezinye izicelo ziya kuqhubeka nokwandisa, njengezithuthi zamandla amatsha ekuphandeleni ukuphuculwa kwee-mileage, inani elikhulu lokunciphisa umzimba we-aluminium recycled. Ukonyusa ugxininiso lweshishini: Phantsi kokwandiswa okuphindwe kabini komthamo wemveliso yeefektri ezinkulu kunye nemimiselo yoshishino, amanye amashishini amancinci aya kupheliswa yimarike, kwaye amashishini anenzuzo aya kukwazi ukwenza iziphumo ezibukhali, ukunciphisa iindleko, kunye nokomeleza ukhuphiswano lwemarike.
3.Uhlalutyo lweqhinga
Alumina: Ishishini lemveliso linokunyusa uluhlu lwempahla ngokufanelekileyo xa ixabiso liphezulu, linda ukuba ixabiso lehle kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe lithumele; Abarhwebi banokucinga ngokuthatha izikhundla ezimfutshane ngaphambi kokuba amaxabiso awele kwi-hedge kwimarike yekamva kwaye bavale inzuzo.
Electrolytic aluminiyam: Amashishini okuvelisa angakwazi ukunikela ingqalelo ekukhuleni kwemfuno kwiindawo ezikhulayo ezifana namandla amatsha, ukulungelelanisa isakhiwo semveliso, kunye nokwandisa imveliso yeemveliso ezinxulumene nazo; Abatyalomali banokuthenga izivumelwano zexesha elizayo xa amaxabiso ephantsi kwaye athengise xa amaxabiso aphezulu ngokwemeko ye-macroeconomic kunye nokunikezelwa kweemarike kunye nokufuna utshintsho.
Ukulungiswa kweAluminiyam: amashishini kufuneka aqinise iteknoloji entsha kunye nophando lwemveliso kunye nophuhliso, ukwandisa ixabiso elongezelelweyo kwimveliso kunye nokhuphiswano lwemarike; Ukwandisa iimarike ezikhulayo, ezifana neenqwelo zamandla amatsha, i-aerospace, ulwazi lwe-elektroniki kunye nezinye iindawo; Ukuqinisa intsebenziswano namashishini anyukayo nasezantsi ukuseka isixokelelwano sobonelelo esizinzileyo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-03-2025
